The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released its World Energy Outlook 2020, which provides a comprehensive view of how the global energy system will evolve over the next few decades. Yesterday, the ECO2 Foundation was invited to attend the launch of the IEA's 2020 World Energy Outlook report in Beijing.[When is the date for this launch?]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that because of the outbreak, this year's situation requires a special method of analysis. However, the outlook remains firmly focused on developments in the global energy sector over the next decade, including the impact of the pandemic on the sector and measures that countries are likely to take to accelerate the transition to clean energy.
According to the IEA, even in a worst-case scenario, a rebound in hard-hit global oil demand is still possible, but the extent of the rebound will depend largely on future climate change policies adopted by governments.
The IEA simulated four possible scenarios in the global energy sector:
1. Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS):
In this case, the global epidemic will be gradually brought under control in 2021, and the global economy will return to pre-crisis levels in the same year. This idea is consistent with the policy intentions and objectives that governments have announced so far.
2. Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS):
This is essentially the same as the first scenario, but the simulated scenario is of lasting damage to the global economic outlook. In this case, the global economy will not return to its pre-crisis size until 2023. This means that oil demand growth over the next decade will eventually reach its lowest level since the 1930s.
3. Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS):
In this scenario, renewable energy is likely to grow dramatically, thanks to global investment in clean energy policies and related investments. These policies and investments will put the energy system on track to fully achieve the sustainable energy goals, including the Paris Agreement.
4. Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE2050):
This is essentially an extension of sustainable development. In this case, many companies and countries aim to achieve net zero emissions of carbon dioxide by around the middle of the century, putting the world on track to achieve net zero emissions by 2070.
The important guests who attended the launch of the World Energy Outlook 2020 report included: Danae Dholakia, Beijing Minister-Counsellor Prosperity at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office; Mechthild Worsdorfer, Director at the European Commission's Directorate General for Energy; Tim Gould, Head of Supply Division, World Energy Outlook - International Energy Agency; Nick Bridge, Great Britain’s Special Representative for Climate Change; Gao Hu, Director of the Center for Energy Economics at the National Development and Reform Commission, as well as other domestic and foreign experts and scholars in the field of energy.